Assessing Mexico’s Chances in Russia

Mexico are in a tricky group for the World Cup. They not only face champions Germany, but also a very plucky South Korea side, and Sweden, who eliminated Italy in qualification. 

El Tri have several attackers who can terrorize any defense during games. Javier Hernandez is probably their most well known forward, previously playing for Real Madrid and Manchester United. He is arguably the best poacher in the world, and is great at anticipating where to be on the field to utilize his amazing skillset to be successful and score goals. Wingers Hirving Lozano and Carlos Vela have enjoyed fruitful seasons, as have competitors for that position Jose Corona and Javier Aquino. Mexico also have the option to play with a target man, with Oribe Peralta and Raul Jimenez two viable options. In midfield, Hector Herrera, Marco Fabian, and even an unfit Andres Guardardo will certainly be a force going forward. Mexico have threatened even the very best teams, from an offensive perspective, over the past few decades. They have one of the most exciting, electric forward lines in attendance in Russia, and all of their opponents should be very worried at what El Tri might bring.

Mexico will unquestionably have the ability and potential to score goals. I therefore believe that Mexico’s downfall, should it occur, will be from its defensive unit. In goal, El Tri has three goalkeepers to choose from, each with their own strengths and weaknesses. Jose Corona and Alfredo Talavera have both featured recently, and looked fairly strong. However, neither has much experience at the World Cup, and both have some serious positioning and reflex save issues. Guillermo Ochoa will likely land the #1 jersey, however he has been a shadow of his former self recently. If his handling and ball skills do not improve, his starting spot is not a given. Mexico will be without, in my eyes, their best defender Nestor Araujo for the World Cup due to injury. Araujo has been far and away their most consistent defender during qualification, and in the friendly games he featured in prior to his injury. Players like Hugo Ayala, Diego Reyes, and Hector Moreno will be seeing a lot of game time in Russia, and will definitely need to improve their communication skills with their fellow teammates to avoid mishaps at the tournament that players like Thomas Muller, Emil Forsberg, and Heung Min Son can counter upon. Luckily, the defense is accompanied by both some solid full backs in Miguel Layun and Jesus Gallardo, as well as one Rafa Marquez who will be at his fifth World Cup. Despite this, Mexico have looked rather shaky in warm up games for the tournament, narrowly beating a lackluster Scotland 1-0, and drawing with a Gareth Bale-less Welsh team. In both cases, they really dominated the game, however looked like they could concede every time their opponent ventured forward.

Mexico will be huge favorites to advance from Group F along with Germany. However, El Tri is seemingly not the force that they used to be, despite featuring largely the same players. It is hard to pinpoint what has changed. What coach Juan Carlos Osorio must keep in mind is that his team does not react well to going behind. He must do his best to force his players to give their all in the opening minutes and try and grab a lead. This shouldn’t be a difficult task with the vast attacking options he has at his disposal. “The Tinkerer” will likely rotate his squad for each group stage game, and therefore must carefully analyze what each opponent brings to the table, and then select an appropriate strategy and personnel that will be able to be effective in that situation. 

Many in the US will be cheering on Mexico at the World Cup, and hopefully El Tri can reach the latter stages of the competition and make the entire continent of North America proud.